Treatment charges for lead concentrate remain under intense pressure, reflecting constrained mine supply relative to smelter demand. TCs have been declining across multiple quarters as concentrate availability fails to keep pace with smelter capacity, particularly in China.
Little meaningful mine production growth is expected through 2026. The lead mining sector has seen limited investment in new projects, with most supply growth occurring as a by-product of polymetallic operations focused on copper, zinc, or silver. Few pure-play lead development projects are advancing through feasibility.
Record silver prices, which topped $58/oz in late 2025 and have remained elevated, are encouraging producers to accelerate development of polymetallic projects. Silver Mountain Resources' Reliquias project is scheduled to reach commercial production during Q3 2026, while Boab Metals' Sorby Hills project could start production toward the end of the forecast horizon if greenlit.
However, even with these projects, meaningful mine production growth remains limited over the next 12 months. Smelters will continue to face margin pressure from low TCs, which may ultimately reduce run rates if concentrate availability becomes critically constrained.