LME three-month lead trades around $2,020/t, maintaining its $1,950-2,050 band through most of 2026. The market remains well-supplied with ILZSG projecting 102,000-109,000t surplus.
The lead market has posted only one deficit year since 2020. Structural oversupply reflects lead's by-product status from zinc, silver, and copper mining.
SHFE lead at CNY 16,650/t is supported by broader non-ferrous gains but capped by weak downstream battery demand.
Strong silver prices boost lead-zinc mine economics, contributing to sustained lead output as a by-product.
The surplus provides pricing power for buyers. Lithium battery substitution in automotive and energy storage is a medium-term demand headwind.
The surplus provides pricing power for buyers. Lithium battery substitution in automotive and energy storage is a medium-term demand headwind.