Global gold mine supply rose modestly to 1,231 tonnes in Q1 2026, up approximately 2 percent year-on-year. Recycling contributed additional supply, but overall production growth remains constrained by declining ore grades, project development timelines, and energy shortages in some producing regions.
Full-year 2026 mine production is expected to increase by only 1.5 percent, as new projects struggle to offset depletion at mature operations. The limited supply growth is occurring against a backdrop of robust structural demand that continues to absorb an increasing share of annual output.
Combined central bank and investment demand now accounts for approximately 26 percent of annual mine output, a historically elevated proportion. Jewellery consumption, while still significant by tonnage, has weakened at current price levels as consumers in price-sensitive markets reduce purchases or shift to lower-carat products.
The structural imbalance between constrained supply and price-inelastic sovereign demand creates conditions for sustained price support even in periods of tactical pullback. Even at a slower purchase pace of approximately 800 tonnes in 2026, central bank demand alone absorbs over 26 percent of annual mine output, providing a powerful price floor.