Bar and coin demand surged 42% QoQ to 474t in Q1 2026, the second-highest quarterly total ever recorded. Physical buyers stepped in aggressively when gold corrected ~15% from its January peak.
The price-responsive physical demand creates a durable floor. When institutional flows drove gold lower in March-April, retail and HNW buyers absorbed selling.
India imports rose 28% YoY, driven by strong jewelry and investment demand. Indian consumers show increased price tolerance in this cycle.
ETF holdings remain below the 2020 peak, suggesting room for institutional reallocation if the Fed signals cuts.
Corrections below $4,500 are likely temporary given the combination of central bank buying, strong physical demand, and ETF capacity.
Corrections below $4,500 are likely temporary given the combination of central bank buying, strong physical demand, and ETF capacity.