Gold safe-haven demand remains elevated as multiple flashpoints sustain investor risk aversion. US-Iran strikes in February sent gold to a record $5,110.
Strait of Hormuz restriction pushed oil above $100/bbl and CPI to 3.3%, creating a feedback loop supporting gold while keeping the Fed hawkish.
Venezuela tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and US-China competition have created a 'geopolitical supercycle' expected to support gold through 2028.
Safe-haven flows lift gold during acute episodes, but high yields and a strong dollar periodically reverse those gains quickly.
The geopolitical risk premium is structural, not temporary. Further escalation would quickly overwhelm dollar and yield headwinds.
The geopolitical risk premium is structural, not temporary. Further escalation would quickly overwhelm dollar and yield headwinds.