Copper demand from data center construction is accelerating faster than most analysts anticipated six months ago. Each new hyperscale facility consumes 30,000-60,000 tonnes of copper for power distribution, grounding, and cooling infrastructure. With global AI capex expected to reach $320 billion in 2026, McKinsey projects data center copper demand will hit 500,000 tonnes annually by 2027 — up from approximately 280,000 tonnes in 2024.
The electrification of heavy transport and industrial fleets is emerging as a second structural demand driver. Class 8 electric truck production in China reached 14,000 units in May, up 180% year-on-year, each unit requiring approximately 220 kg of copper for batteries, motors, and wiring. European EV sales rebounded 23% in May after the EU finalized its 2035 ICE phaseout schedule.
Global refined copper production grew only 1.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, constrained by smelter maintenance outages in China and Japan, and declining ore grades at major South American mines. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data shows the refined market moved from a 95,000-tonne surplus in 2024 to an estimated 162,000-tonne deficit in the first five months of 2026.
On the supply side, the mine project pipeline remains thin. Of the 15 major copper projects scheduled for commissioning between 2026 and 2028, only 6 have received full financing approval, representing just 1.2 million tonnes of new capacity — well below the 3-4 million tonnes needed to close the projected structural deficit.
The structural demand thesis for copper remains intact. Buyers should build strategic inventory positions during short-term price corrections below $13,000/mt. Lock in a portion of H2 2026 requirements through structured forwards, given that the deficit narrative continues to strengthen entering 2027.