Global aluminium trade flows undergo fundamental reconfiguration as sanctions fragment previously integrated supply chains. Russian metal increasingly flows to Asia while Western consumers pay premiums for alternative origin.
EU duty-paid premium rose to ~$450/t reflecting replacement costs. US Midwest premiums at ~$380/t supported by Section 232 tariffs restricting primary imports.
Chinese semi-fabricated exports increase but the 45Mt capacity cap prevents primary output expansion. China remains a net primary importer despite being the largest producer.
Physical premiums vary significantly by region and origin. Long-term contracts increasingly include origin-specific pricing clauses.
Supplier diversification, flexible delivery point options, and regular sanctions review are essential risk management measures.
Supplier diversification, flexible delivery point options, and regular sanctions review are essential risk management measures.