LME inventories have fallen to 349,100t, the lowest in over a year, as the structural supply deficit drains available metal. Backwardation at $60/t reflects genuine physical tightness rather than speculative positioning.
China's 45Mt capacity cap creates a hard ceiling on global supply. Despite high prices, Chinese smelters cannot increase primary output beyond the mandated limit.
European smelters remain constrained by elevated energy costs, with regional capacity still well below pre-2022 levels of 5Mt/year.
Demand remains resilient across all sectors. AI data center construction, grid infrastructure, defense spending, and automotive lightweighting drive structural consumption growth.
Lock in volume commitments with fixed premiums where possible. Build strategic inventory positions during corrective dips.
Lock in volume commitments with fixed premiums where possible. Build strategic inventory positions during corrective dips.