Iranian missile strikes in late March 2026 targeting Emirates Global Aluminium's Al-Taweelah complex and Aluminium Bahrain's smelter have taken an estimated 3.0 to 3.2 million tonnes of combined annual smelting capacity offline. EGA's Al-Taweelah facility — one of the world's largest single-site aluminium smelters — was completely knocked out after a direct hit on its dedicated power plant. Alba in Bahrain was reduced to approximately 30% of capacity following missile damage. (FACT: AL Circle, May 20, 2026; Discovery Alert, May 20, 2026)
Compounding the direct damage, Qatalum in Qatar — a joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing — implemented a 40% production curtailment due to reduced natural gas supply pressure, removing an additional estimated 259,200 tonnes of annual output. Combined, the three facilities represent roughly 3.5 million tonnes of lost annual production capacity — approximately 4-5% of the global aluminium supply, which stood at just under 74 million tonnes in 2025. (FACT: Wood Mackenzie via AL Circle; Discovery Alert, May 19, 2026)
The damage is structural, not temporary. EGA's Al-Taweelah faces a recovery horizon of approximately 12 months before it can restore full production. Alba is expected to remain at reduced capacity for 6-9 months. Even after physical repairs are complete, the Strait of Hormuz closure means that raw material inputs — bauxite and alumina, which Gulf smelters import almost entirely — cannot arrive reliably. ANZ Bank noted that 75% of the Middle East's aluminium smelting capacity depends on imported alumina and bauxite moving through Hormuz. (FACT: ANZ Bank, AL Circle; Discovery Alert)
Wood Mackenzie projects total 2026 output losses of 3.0 to 3.5 million tonnes from the Gulf crisis, pushing the global aluminium market into a deficit of 1.5 to 2.5 million tonnes in the base case, with a worst-case scenario reaching 4 million tonnes. LME aluminium prices climbed to a four-year high of $3,643/t on April 16 and have remained elevated above $3,500/t since. ANZ projects aluminium will remain above $3,400/t through 2026. (FACT: Wood Mackenzie; LME; ANZ Bank, May 20, 2026)
The Gulf smelter losses are not a temporary disruption — they are a structural supply shock that will take 12+ months to resolve even under optimistic scenarios. The 4-5% of global supply that vanished in March is not coming back quickly. Procurement teams should: (1) Assume that Gulf-origin metal will not be available for at least 6-9 months for Alba-origin contracts, and 12+ months for EGA-origin contracts. (2) Identify which of your supply agreements have Gulf exposure — force majeure declarations have already been issued by EGA and Alba. (3) Secure alternative tonnage from Russia, India, or Southeast Asia, but expect competition — every buyer in Europe and Asia is making the same calls. (4) Budget for LME above $3,400/t through year-end, with upside to $4,000/t if the crisis escalates further.