Market diagnosis: The global refined zinc market remains in a 19kt deficit (ILZSG Apr 2026 revision), driven by acute concentrate scarcity and Western smelter disruptions led by the Kazzinc blast. LME Cash at $3,633/mt (+17% YTD) reflects the tightening bias, with backwardation widening to $41/t — the widest in weeks — signaling physical tightening despite flat price recovery from the Jul 17 low of $3,525.50. LME stocks declined further to 105,800t, representing ~4 days of global consumption. The supply-demand bifurcation persists: Western tightness vs Chinese surplus (SHFE social >250kt). This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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