Zinc has rallied 14.2% YTD to $3,546/mt, driven by tight concentrates (spot TCs near zero) and a close-to-balanced global market after ILZSG revised its 2026 surplus forecast from +271kt to -19kt. The Oct 2025 squeeze ($320/t backwardation) has normalized to a shallow $14/t. LME stocks at ~119kt remain historically low, but ample Chinese supply (>250kt social stocks) caps the upside. The concentrate market remains the tightest link. Buyers should cover near-term needs within $3,400-3,500/mt and monitor the Huoshaoyun ramp timeline for second-half price direction.
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