Lead has lost $55/mt since mid-June, settling at $1,935/mt cash as contango widened to $34/t. A +109 kt global surplus and elevated stocks — 309 kt registered, ~439 kt total including shadow inventory — cap any rally above $2,000. Supply-side risks (Hormuz disruption, Vietnam environmental curbs) are not yet priced into forward curves. Buyers should cover within $1,850-1,950/mt.
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