Zinc is in a supported consolidation — LME $3,519/t (Jun 8), SHFE ¥24,450/mt. The extreme backwardation of Oct 2025 (~$320/t cash-3M) has reversed to a shallow contango (~$15/t), signalling eased prompt tightness. But supply remains vulnerable: Iran war disruptions hit Chinese smelter feedstock, Red Dog grades are declining, and JP Morgan cut its 2026 production forecast by 300 kt. ILZSG projects a 271 kt surplus, yet the market has repeatedly proven tighter than forecast. Buyers should maintain DEFENSIVE posture — cover near-term needs, wait for clearer surplus signals before extending duration.
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