WTI crude at $69.09/bbl has corrected 26% from early-June levels as the US-Iran peace process restores Hormuz Strait flows and OPEC+ begins unwinding supply cuts. The geopolitical premium that drove prices to $113 in April has fully unwound. Yet the underlying market is not balanced: US commercial inventories at 412M bbl are the lowest since January 2025, Cushing has drained to a 12-year low (19M bbl), and global stock draws accelerated to -4.6 mb/d in May. The bear case (Hormuz fully reopening plus continued OPEC+ increases) is dominant at ~45% probability, but Cushing tightness creates a structural floor near $60-65/bbl. Buyers should adopt an opportunistic posture: layer partial hedges on dips below $65, leave exposure for further downside to $55.