Market diagnosis: Tin holds near record levels while the physical market withdraws support. LME cash settled at $56,225/mt (+33.7% YTD), 4.8% below the January record of $59,040. Against that price, the cash-3M spread sits in a $275/mt contango — widened from roughly $200 in early August — and the LME stock draw is decelerating: -320t (w/e Aug 7), -205t (w/e Aug 14), -165t this week to 5,320t. Improving Myanmar raw-material flows and higher official Indonesian supply point to an underlying refined surplus, while the deficit case rests on Coface's first-deficit-since-2021 forecast (demand +3.5% vs supply +3%) and SEMI wafer shipments +5.2%. Price is trading the deficit narrative; spreads are trading surplus. This report reverses the prior call — LOCK NOW is invalidated; the posture is now DEFENSIVE, with Indonesia's H2 RKAB quota decisions as the binary event that decides which camp wins.
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