Market diagnosis: Tin has re-accelerated toward record territory as the physical market tightens. LME Cash at $56,100/mt (+5.3% in three weeks from $53,300) sits 5% below the January record of $59,040, with the LME night session breaking $57,000 intraday on Aug 5. The tightening is physical, not narrative: LME stocks have drained 22 consecutive sessions to 5,690t (-34% from the end-May peak of 8,660t, ~4.7 days of global consumption), and Indonesia's June refined exports fell 32.8% YoY to 2,999.54t on permit bottlenecks. The cash-to-3M contango has narrowed from $250 to $200 — easing but still signaling future-scarcity pricing rather than a spot squeeze. Coface projects the first refined deficit since 2021 (demand +3.5% vs supply +3%); ITA sees balance, but the stock trajectory is decisive for now. Semiconductor strength (DRAM +20-30%, NAND +35-40% Q3 price hikes) underpins the demand side. This report quantifies the re-acceleration risk and the procurement response.
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