Market diagnosis: The global refined tin market remains structurally tight (-5 to -10kt deficit expected 2026), driven by acute supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar outbalancing demand growth. LME Cash at $53,250/mt (+2.3% WoW from $52,045) reflects a modest recovery from the Jul 23 low of $50,550, but remains in consolidation below the Jun 2 record of ~$58,750. Indonesia export bottlenecks persist — May 2026 exports fell >40% YoY to 3,246t, with Jakarta seizing 500t of metal from illegal mines. Myanmar Wa State restart remains slow at 30-50% below historical levels. LME stocks at 7,085t represent ~6 days of global consumption — critically low despite modest rebuilding. The $250/t contango (cash below 3M) signals easing nearby tightness but does not resolve the structural deficit. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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