Market diagnosis: The global refined tin market remains in a structural deficit of -5 to -8kt for 2026, driven by acute supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar outbalancing demand growth. LME Cash at $52,045/mt (-1.54% WoW from $52,860) reflects correction from the Jun 2 record of ~$59,000, now in consolidation. Indonesia export bottlenecks persist — May 2026 exports fell >40% YoY to 3,246t, with 500t of metal seized from illegal mines. Myanmar Wa State restart remains slow at 30-50% below historical levels. LME stocks at 8,160t represent ~1.5 days of global consumption — critically low. The $355/t contango (cash below 3M) signals easing nearby tightness but does not resolve the structural deficit. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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