Market diagnosis: The global tin market is rebalancing after Q1 2026's speculative rally that pushed prices to an all-time high of ~$58,860/t (LME 3M, Jan 2026). LME Cash at $52,575/mt (+25.0% YTD, +57% YoY) reflects a market correcting from speculative excess while supply-side risks from Myanmar and the DRC support a structural floor. LME stocks at 8,000t have risen 60% from start-of-year lows, and the $375/t contango structure signals that physical tin is not in short supply today. The Coface deficit expectation (first since 2021, expected as early as 2026) and the Section 232 critical minerals negotiation deadline (July 13, 2026) are the key medium-term catalysts. The market is driven by the tension between near-term rebalancing and a deeply held structural scarcity narrative that investors are betting on for 2027-2030.
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