Executive Summary
SCRAP
Price Action
Policy Impact
Supply Risk
Global ferrous scrap markets entered Week 6 of June 2026 in a firm to bullish posture, driven by persistent supply tightness, elevated freight costs linked to ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, and structural demand growth from Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking expansion. The benchmark Turkish HMS 1/2 (80:20) CFR price settled in the $400--410 per metric ton range, with European-origin cargoes trading at the higher end ($406--408 CFR). Asian benchmarks remained lower but firm, with Taiwan at approximately $360/mt CFR and Vietnam at $370/mt CFR.
Key themes for this week include: tight scrap availability in the deep-sea market sustaining Turkish import premiums; US domestic prices flat to slightly softer despite surging mill production; European CBAM and safeguard policy tightening expected to increase regional scrap retention; and geopolitical risks around Middle East shipping lanes keeping freight and insurance costs elevated.
Data Transparency Notice
This report covers the symbol SCRAP, for which no historical price data exists in the rzzro.com prices.json pipeline. All price references, benchmarks, and chart data in this report are sourced from publicly available research, industry publications (Steel Market Update, Recycling Today, Fastmarkets, GMK Center, Steelonthenet, Procurement Resource), and financial data providers (FRED, CME Group). Users should treat these as indicative market intelligence rather than exchange-listed price history. Directories and price indices from Fastmarkets, Argus Media, and S&P Global Commodity Insights offer daily granular data behind subscription paywalls.
Global Price Snapshot - Week 6, June 2026
Spot Benchmarks
CFR/FOB
HMS 1/2 80:20
$400-410
Turkey CFR HMS 1/2 80:20
+3.9% QTD
$360
Taiwan CFR HMS 1/2 80:20
Stable
$370
Vietnam CFR HMS 1/2 80:20
Stable
$350-380
Turkey CFR (Medium-Term Forecast)
2026-27 Range
US Domestic Scrap Benchmarks (May 27, 2026)
$364
#1 Heavy Melting Scrap
-$8/t MoM
$423
Shredded Scrap
-$2/t MoM
$448
#1 Busheling Scrap
+$4/t MoM
US prices in $/net ton delivered mill. Source: SteelBenchmarker, RMDAS/MSA Inc.
Regional Price Comparison (May 2026, selected benchmarks)
| Region / Grade | Price ($/mt) | Incoterm | Trend (MoM) |
|---|
| Turkey HMS 1/2 80:20 (EU origin) | $406-408 | CFR | Firming |
| Turkey HMS 1/2 80:20 (US origin) | $395-405 | CFR | Firming |
| Taiwan HMS 1/2 80:20 | $360 | CFR | Stable |
| Vietnam HMS 1/2 80:20 | $370 | CFR | Stable |
| China Domestic Scrap | $350 | Delivered | +0.8% |
| China Import HMS 1/2 | $345 | CFR | +0.7% |
| India HMS 1/2 Import | $438 | CIF | Strong |
| Germany Steel Scrap | $457 | CIF | Stable |
| US East Coast Export HMS | $363 | FOB | Soft |
Price Trend Analysis
Chart Data
Research-Based
Note: Since no SCRAP price history exists in the rzzro.com pipeline, this price series is reconstructed from public research data and industry publications to illustrate market trajectory.
Turkish HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Benchmark (Estimated Monthly, $/mt)
| Period | Price ($/mt) | Change | Context |
|---|
| Jan 2026 | $375 | Baseline | Post-winter supply normalization |
| Feb 2026 | $374 | -0.3% | Stable trading, adequate supply |
| Mar 2026 (late) | $388 | +3.9% | Turkish buying surge; highest since Jul 2024 |
| Apr 2026 | $408 | +5.2% | 30+ deep-sea cargoes in 3-day buy spree |
| May 2026 | $407 | -0.2% | Consolidation; demand steady |
| Jun 2026 (Wk 6) | $400-410 | Firm | Supply tight; freight elevated |
US Domestic Scrap Price Trend (Estimated, $/net ton)
| Grade | Q1 2026 Avg | Apr-May 2026 Avg | Trend |
|---|
| #1 Heavy Melting | $370 | $364 | -1.6% |
| Shredded | $425 | $423 | -0.5% |
| #1 Busheling | $444 | $448 | +0.9% |
Global Scrap-to-Steel Price Correlation
In May 2026, US domestic HRC prices continued to rise ($1,169/net ton vs $1,061 in prior period), while scrap prices remained flat to slightly lower. This divergence is notable: EAF mill margins are expanding, which could eventually support higher scrap prices if mill demand persists. US steel production reached 1.9 million tons per week at 82.2% capacity utilization in mid-May 2026, up 10.3% year-over-year.
Supply & Demand Analysis
Fundamentals
Structural Shift
Supply Constraints
- Collection Limits: Global obsolete (post-consumer) scrap collection is approaching practical ceilings in mature markets. Weather disruptions in North America (winter storms) delayed collections in early 2026, tightening prompt supply.
- Export Restrictions: EU is considering scrap export limitations as part of its Critical Raw Materials strategy, which would reduce availability for key importers like Turkey.
- Freight & Insurance: Middle East conflict (Red Sea / Strait of Hormuz risks) has elevated shipping costs and war risk insurance premiums, adding $15-25/t to deep-sea scrap movements.
- US Supply Glut Paradox: Despite tightness globally, US domestic scrap is relatively abundant as tariffs keep finished steel prices high, incentivizing mills to buy local rather than export.
Demand Drivers
- EAF Capacity Expansion: Global shift from BF-BOF to EAF steelmaking is accelerating, with Turkey, US, EU, and India all adding EAF capacity. Each new EAF increases scrap demand intensity.
- Decarbonization Policy: EU CBAM (operational from 2026), UK CBAM (2027), and national carbon pricing schemes favor scrap-intensive production over virgin iron ore routes.
- Turkish Appetite: Turkey remains the world's largest scrap importer at 18.77 Mt (2025), with mills running near capacity and additional EAF capacity under development.
- India Growth: India's scrap imports reached 8.04 Mt in 2025, and its steel output continues to grow, driven by infrastructure investment and urbanization.
- China Structural Shift: China's scrap-to-steel ratio rose to 212 kg/t by late 2025 (vs 185 kg/t 2016-20 average), signaling long-term demand growth even as total steel output plateaus.
Global Ferrous Scrap Market Size
$97B
Global Market (2026 Est.)
480.3 Mt
Global Consumption (2025)
+4.5%
Consumption Growth (2025 YoY)
Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Risk Assessment
High Risk
Policy Driven
Active Risks (Medium to High Impact)
- Middle East Conflict / Strait of Hormuz: Ongoing US-Iran-Israel tensions have disrupted Red Sea and Persian Gulf shipping lanes. War risk insurance premiums remain elevated. Oil prices dropped 20% from 2026 peak on ceasefire optimism (May 29), but a resolution remains uncertain. Any escalation could spike freight costs further.
- US Trade Policy: Steel tariffs (Section 232) continue to shield US domestic prices, creating a two-tier market where US scrap is priced above export parity. US scrap exports to Turkey fell 48% in late 2025 vs prior year.
- EU Safeguard Expiry (June 30, 2026): Current EU steel safeguard expires June 30, replaced by tighter quotas with 50% out-of-quota tariffs. This will reduce finished steel imports and boost demand for domestic scrap-fed EAF production.
- EU Scrap Export Restrictions: Proposed restrictions on scrap exports from the EU could remove 2-3 Mt from global seaborne supply, disproportionately affecting Turkish buyers.
Macroeconomic Factors
- Freight Costs: Elevated bunker fuel prices and longer routing (avoiding Red Sea / Suez Canal) add $15-25/t to deep-sea scrap transport costs, particularly affecting US-to-Turkey and EU-to-Asia routes.
- Currency Effects: Turkish Lira depreciation continues to pressure Turkish mill margins, capping their absolute bidding capacity despite strong demand.
- China Real Estate: Sluggish recovery in China's construction sector limits domestic scrap demand growth, creating an overhang of Chinese scrap that could soften global prices if export policy shifts.
- Energy Costs: Elevated electricity prices in Europe and Asia increase EAF melting costs, potentially reducing mill profitability and scrap buying appetite at higher price levels.
Risk Matrix Summary
| Risk Factor | Probability | Impact | Timeframe | Direction |
|---|
| Middle East shipping disruption | Medium-High | High | Near-term | Bullish scrap |
| EU scrap export restrictions | High | Medium-High | Medium-term | Bullish scrap |
| US tariff continuation | High | Medium | Ongoing | Mixed |
| China demand weakness | Medium | Medium | Ongoing | Bearish scrap |
| Turkish Lira devaluation | High | Medium | Ongoing | Price cap |
| Global EAF capacity additions | High | High | Long-term | Bullish scrap |
Market Outlook & Forecast
Forecast
SCRAP Symbol
Short-Term (Q3 2026)
- Turkish HMS 1/2 CFR expected to trade in the $390-420/mt range, with upside risk from summer maintenance shutdowns and tight collection.
- US domestic scrap likely to remain rangebound as robust mill production absorbs available supply; busheling premium may widen further on automotive sector demand.
- Asian container market expected to track Turkish benchmarks with a $30-50 discount reflecting weaker regional demand ex-India.
Medium-Term (H2 2026 - 2027)
- Structural analyst consensus (World Bank, Steelonthenet) forecasts Turkish HMS 1/2 CFR rangebound at $350-380/mt through 2026-27, as rising scrap supply from increased recycling capacity broadly offsets demand growth from EAF expansion.
- However, upside risks are significant: if EU scrap export restrictions materialize and Middle East disruptions persist, prices could sustain above $400/mt into early 2027.
- EU domestic scrap prices forecast to rise from $420/t (2025) to $450/t (2026) as CBAM and safeguards tighten regional supply-demand balances.
Key Indicators to Watch
- Weekly: Turkish deep-sea cargo bookings and CFR price settlements; US AISI capacity utilization rates.
- Monthly: EU safeguard quota fill rates; CBAM import data; Chinese scrap-to-steel ratio.
- Quarterly: Global crude steel production by country; EAF vs BOF output share; scrap export/import flows.
Verdict & Recommendation
SCRAP Market Verdict: BULLISH (Near-Term) / NEUTRAL (Medium-Term)
Near-term outlook (next 4-6 weeks): Firm to bullish. Supply tightness, geopolitical risk premiums in freight, and structural EAF-driven demand support current elevated price levels. Turkish benchmark likely to hold $395-415/mt range.
Medium-term outlook (6-18 months): Neutral with upside skew. The World Bank / Steelonthenet forecast of $350-380/mt for Turkish CFR reflects a balanced view of rising supply vs growing demand. However, policy tailwinds (CBAM, EAF expansion, scrap export restrictions) represent material upside that could push prices higher than current consensus expectations.
Risk-adjusted assessment: Scrap steel faces asymmetric upside risk. Downside is limited by the structural shift to EAF steelmaking (scrap demand grows even if steel output plateaus). The primary downside risk is a sharp demand contraction in China or a rapid resolution of Middle East tensions compressing freight premiums.
Recommendation for rzzro.com: Establish SCRAP price tracking from Fastmarkets and Argus Media indices to build historical data pipeline and enable automated chart generation in future reports.
Compliance & Labels
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Data Transparency Notice
Labels applied: SCRAP, Price Action, Policy Impact, Supply Risk, Spot Benchmarks, Structural Shift, Fundamentals, Chart Data, Research-Based, Forecast, High Risk, Bullish.
Disclaimer & Data Sources
This report is for informational and intelligence purposes only. It does not constitute investment or trading advice. Price data is indicative and sourced from publicly available research including: Steel Market Update, Recycling Today, GMK Center, Fastmarkets, SteelBenchmarker, Steelonthenet, Procurement Resource, ScrapMonster, MSA/RMDAS, American Iron and Steel Institute, CME Group, and FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). No historical SCRAP price data exists in the rzzro.com pipeline for this symbol. All chart data is reconstructed from research sources. Market conditions can change rapidly. Verify with primary sources before making trading or procurement decisions.
Report ID: RZZRO-SCRAP-2026-W6 | Generated: May 30, 2026 | Symbol: SCRAP | Classification: Market Intelligence