The post-safeguard decline in ferrous scrap has arrested. US-origin HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Turkey held at $376/mt through the first week of August (AISU, Aug 1, unchanged week-on-week), and European-origin HMS is steady at $358-366/mt. The US domestic market enters its August settlement cycle with expectations of sideways to slightly lower numbers: SMU's Aug 4 survey flags -$10/gt for shredded and HMS in the Southeast and a possible -$20/gt hit in Chicago, while prime grades (busheling, $465-471/ton RMDAS) hold sideways on limited generation and elevated pig iron costs. Turkish buying remains muted - the manufacturing PMI contracted again in July - but US EAF mills are operating above 83.8% of capacity, and the Hormuz/US-Iran freight premium (+$15-20/mt in CFR pricing) persists. The floor is holding. The risk asymmetry favors buyers: upside to $390-410/mt (~30% probability) requires only Turkish restocking and normal autumn demand; downside to $335-355/mt (~20% probability) requires Hormuz reopening plus a sustained Turkish pause. Procurement posture: OPPORTUNISTIC. Secure Q4 volumes at current levels before the autumn restock window opens.
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