Ferrous scrap prices have extended their post-safeguard decline into a third week. European-origin HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Turkey is now trading at $360-368/mt, with some cargoes reportedly transacting below $360 for Baltic origin. US-origin HMS sits at $373/mt CFR Turkey. Trading Economics' scrap steel CFD indicator stood at $393.50/mt as of mid-July, reflecting a 1.75% month-on-month decline but a 14.22% year-on-year gain. The EU Overcapacity Regulation (EU 2026/1384) continues to disrupt trade flows into its fourth week of effect — Turkiye's HRC allocation remains exhausted with 229,564t in pending volume. AISI reported US raw steel production at 1.856 million net tons for the week ending July 4, down 4.3% year-over-year. US domestic scrap markets remain the key source of price stability: the RMDAS Prompt Industrial Composite (No. 1 busheling) holds at $465-471/ton since February. The US-Iran conflict escalation has kept freight premiums elevated, adding $15-20/mt of support to Turkish CFR pricing. The tactical buying window persists but is narrowing as medium-term fundamentals (EU safeguard, EAF capacity expansion) point to structurally tighter availability ahead. Procurement posture: OPPORTUNISTIC. Secure Q3 volumes at current levels.
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