Global ferrous scrap markets remain rangebound at $400-410/mt Turkish CFR as of late June 2026, with Turkish mills bidding at $390 (rejected) and suppliers holding firm at $406-408/mt. The 7-week stalemate will break within 14 days when the EU steel safeguard overhaul takes effect July 1 — halving tariff-free imports to 18 Mt and doubling out-of-quota tariffs to 50%. Three policy catalysts converge: EU safeguard (July 1), UK safeguard expiry/replacement (June 30), and potential EU scrap export restrictions under the Critical Raw Materials strategy. US domestic scrap is flat at $364/nt #1 HMS with mill utilization at 80-82%. Davis Index reports a US-origin bulk cargo to Turkey at $5/mt below prior — the first crack in supplier pricing. Buyers should lock 50% of Q3 needs at current levels; the asymmetric policy upside makes waiting higher risk than current pricing.
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