Market diagnosis: SHFE rebar at CNY 3,093/mt (-2.27% YTD, -7.7% YoY) sits near a 13-month low after a four-month downtrend from the April peak of CNY 3,256. The China regional rebar index fell for a 49th straight day to CNY 3,142 on Aug 7, the lowest since November 2016, as the property slump and elevated inventories cap any seasonal recovery. Only 34.63% of the 247 surveyed Chinese mills operated at a profit; Tangshan mill losses surpassed CNY 100/t. BF utilization at 82.09% and daily hot metal output at 2.377 Mt show cuts are underway but have not yet outpaced demand deterioration. Iron ore at $94.55/mt (-6.7% YoY) removes the cost floor that would otherwise limit declines. The EU safeguard (18.3 Mt quota, 50% out-of-quota duty) and US Section 232 (50%) keep Western markets structurally higher: US rebar ~$1,011/mt, N Europe EUR 710-730/t delivered. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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