INTELLIGENCE REPORT

RBOB Gasoline Intelligence Report

July 8, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Gasoline (NYMEX RB=F)
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

RBOB gasoline at $2.83/gal has corrected 25% from the April peak of $3.77 as the Hormuz risk premium unwinds following the ceasefire and partial reopening of maritime flows. Yet the physical gasoline market remains exceptionally tight: inventories at ~215 million barrels are the lowest for June since 2014, 7% below the five-year average, and the Feb-May drawdown of 47.5 million barrels is the largest on record. Refinery utilization at 94.5% leaves minimal spare capacity, while European gasoline exports — traditionally the US summer balancing source — are declining as continental demand rises. The downward path for RBOB depends entirely on the pace of Hormuz normalization and the speed of inventory rebuilding. For buyers: hold existing contracts where possible; defer new fixed-price commitments toward Q4 when the seasonal switch to winter-grade gasoline typically lowers costs by $0.20-0.30/gal.

NYMEX RBOB
$2.8257
-$0.1282 (-4.3%)
$/gal · Jul 8, 2026
YTD Change
+66.4%
From Jan open ~$1.70
Largest H1 energy gain
Backwardation
-$0.70
Aug → Feb 27 spread
Steep contango by Feb
US Gasoline Inv.
215M bbl
-7% vs 5yr avg
Lowest June since 2014
Report data: 21 verified sources · 17 FACT · 4 ESTIMATE · Pipeline feed: NYMEX RB=F