RBOB gasoline at $2.83/gal has corrected 25% from the April peak of $3.77 as the Hormuz risk premium unwinds following the ceasefire and partial reopening of maritime flows. Yet the physical gasoline market remains exceptionally tight: inventories at ~215 million barrels are the lowest for June since 2014, 7% below the five-year average, and the Feb-May drawdown of 47.5 million barrels is the largest on record. Refinery utilization at 94.5% leaves minimal spare capacity, while European gasoline exports — traditionally the US summer balancing source — are declining as continental demand rises. The downward path for RBOB depends entirely on the pace of Hormuz normalization and the speed of inventory rebuilding. For buyers: hold existing contracts where possible; defer new fixed-price commitments toward Q4 when the seasonal switch to winter-grade gasoline typically lowers costs by $0.20-0.30/gal.