Henry Hub natural gas at $2.757/mmBtu sits at its lowest level since May, after a seventh straight weekly loss was only narrowly avoided on Friday's bargain-buying bounce. Storage at 3,117 Bcf (week ending Jul 31, +33 Bcf injection versus a +28-31 Bcf consensus) is 195 Bcf above the 5-year average (+6.7%), and Lower 48 production set a record 110.7 Bcf/d in July. Freeport LNG maintenance enters week 5 (since July 10), holding feedgas to the nine major terminals near 16.9 Bcf/d. The domestic market is oversupplied, but the global layer is tight: Strait of Hormuz disruption has removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply since February, keeping US export economics strong and European storage at 58% full. EIA's July STEO projects Henry Hub at $3.67 for 2026 and $3.49 for 2027; AGA now sees $3.31. The -23.8% YTD return reflects the collapse from January's Winter Storm Fern spike ($7.46 futures peak). Buyers should stay opportunistic: avoid term locks above $3.00, layer winter strip coverage near the current $2.70-2.80 zone, and watch Freeport's return and Hormuz talks as the two August catalysts.