Henry Hub natural gas at $2.763/mmBtu has fallen to its lowest level since May, pressured by a comfortable storage surplus at 3,084 Bcf (+6.4% above the 5-year average) and record Permian associated gas production that continues to grow even as oil prices ease. Freeport LNG maintenance, now in its fourth week (since July 10), has removed approximately 0.7 Bcf/d of feedgas demand, but LNG feedgas to other terminals remains robust at 17.4 Bcf/d. The EIA July STEO projects Henry Hub at close to $3.70/mmBtu for full-year 2026 and below $3.50 for 2027, a sharp downward revision from June. Summer heat is providing some demand support through elevated power burn, but the structural fundamentals point to continued pressure on prompt pricing. The -23.6% YTD return reflects the full collapse from January's Winter Storm Fern spike ($7.72). Buyers should maintain a defensive posture: avoid locking term contracts above $3.00, prepare dip-buying at $2.50-2.60, and monitor Freeport's return timeline as a potential late-summer catalyst.