Henry Hub natural gas at $2.886/mmBtu has broken below $3 for the first time since May, pressured by Freeport LNG maintenance that began July 10 and a comfortable storage position at 3,171 Bcf. The 1.84% daily decline reflects the bearish combination of reduced LNG feedgas demand (~0.7 Bcf/d offline at Freeport through late August) and the easing of global supply fears after the Strait of Hormuz MOU signed June 18. Power burn at 45.6 Bcf/d (+15% WoW) provides a floor during the summer heat, but storage is well supplied and production at 109.7 Bcf/d remains near record levels. The EIA July STEO projects Henry Hub averaging close to $3.70 in 2026 and below $3.50 in 2027 — a downward revision from June. Brent crude is falling ($74/bbl expected Q3 2026) as geopolitical tensions ease. Buyers should maintain a defensive posture: avoid locking long-term fixed-price contracts above $3.00, watch for dip opportunities near $2.70, and monitor Freeport's return-to-service timeline as a potential catalyst.