Henry Hub natural gas at $3.23/mmBtu sits near the middle of its post-winter consolidation range, supported by a severe heat wave driving record power demand but capped by record production at 110 Bcf/d and a storage surplus of 6.2% above the 5-year average. LNG feedgas flows at 17.4 Bcf/d — near nameplate capacity — provide steady structural demand, and the global LNG shortage from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions creates persistent support for US exports. Yet domestic production growth of 3.3% YoY, driven primarily by associated gas from Permian oil wells, continues to outpace demand growth on an annual basis. The EIA projects Henry Hub averaging $3.34/mmBtu in 2H26 and $3.46 in 2027. Supply overhang caps meaningful upside above $3.50-4.00 unless extreme weather or a major supply disruption materializes. Buyers should maintain a defensive posture: avoid locking long-term fixed-price contracts at current levels, use short-dated hedging for summer peak exposure, and watch for dip opportunities below $2.80.