Molybdenum prices hold at 617.50 CNY/kg — up 21.1% YTD and 26.0% YoY — flat for the week at the 52-week high as a stable copper-byproduct deficit meets a new downstream processing constraint. A boiler leak halted PT Smelting's Gresik smelter (Aug 11), suspending Indonesian copper concentrate processing for several weeks; Freeport confirmed Grasberg mine production is unaffected, so the direct moly supply impact is limited, but the halt tightens copper concentrate availability and extends the byproduct-constrained narrative. Freeport's Q2 report (Jul 23) keeps Grasberg recovery at ~65% of capacity for H2 2026, ~80% by mid-2027, near-full only by end-2027. SMM holds a 2026 global deficit of ~13,000 t, with Q1 consumption at 180 mlbs up 9% QoQ against flat production of 168 mlbs. China's ferromolybdenum tenders remain firm at CNY 331,000–334,500/t through late July and early August, though the underlying steel channel is weakening — H1 2026 crude steel output fell 3% YoY and finished-steel inventories rose 16% YoY. The Section 232 negotiation report passed its July 13 deadline with no molybdenum-specific tariff action; the August 5 Defense Production Act determination delegates authority for export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals. Buyers should hold 30–45 day coverage and lock H2 volumes at current FeMo premiums.