Molybdenum prices hold at 617.50 CNY/kg — up 21.1% YTD and 26.0% YoY — flat for the week as a stable copper-byproduct deficit meets rising demand-side resistance. Freeport's Q2 report (Jul 23) confirmed Grasberg recovery at ~65% of capacity for H2 2026, ~80% by mid-2027 and near-full only by end-2027 — slower than pre-incident expectations, keeping molybdenum concentrate availability constrained through 2027. SMM holds a 2026 global deficit of ~13,000 t, with Q1 consumption at 180 mlbs up 9% QoQ against flat production of 168 mlbs. China's ferromolybdenum tenders remain firm at CNY 331,000–334,500/t through late July and early August, though the underlying steel channel is weakening — H1 2026 crude steel output fell 3% YoY and finished-steel inventories rose 16% YoY. On trade policy, the Section 232 negotiation report passed its July 13 deadline with no molybdenum-specific tariff action, while the August 5 Defense Production Act determination delegates authority for export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals — a new US-side tool. Buyers should hold 30–45 day coverage and lock H2 volumes at current FeMo premiums.