Molybdenum prices at 617.50 CNY/kg — up 21.1% YTD — remain at 52-week highs supported by copper byproduct supply constraints and structural deficit conditions. The Grasberg force majeure (Sep 2025) continues restricting Freeport's output with 2026 copper production cut ~35%, and with ~80% of molybdenum produced as copper byproduct, concentrate availability remains tight. Peru's ongoing energy crisis compounds the constraint. The Section 232 report was submitted on July 13, 2026, now three weeks past, without immediate tariff imposition — though the administration retains the right to act. International moly oxide held at ~$40.82/lb through May, while the FOB China benchmark softened to $33.70/lb in June. The FocusEconomics consensus of $38-45/lb through H2 2026 reflects genuinely tight supply against stable steel demand. Buyers should maintain 30-45 day coverage. The China export control suspension expiry (November 10, 2026) remains the next catalyst to monitor.