Molybdenum prices at 617.50 CNY/kg — up 21.1% YTD — remain at 52-week highs supported by copper byproduct supply constraints, with the Section 232 report deadline eight days past and no immediate tariff action announced. The structural deficit from Freeport's Grasberg force majeure (Sep 2025) and Peru's energy crisis persists, keeping concentrate availability tight. International moly oxide held at ~$40.82/lb through May, though FOB China benchmark softened to ~$33.70/lb in June. The Section 232 report on July 13 has not triggered immediate tariffs, but the administration retains the right to act on findings. FocusEconomics consensus range of $38-45/lb through H2 2026 reflects genuinely tight supply against stable steel demand. Buyers should maintain 30-45 day coverage. The China export control suspension expiry (Nov 10, 2026) is the next catalyst to monitor.