Molybdenum prices at 612.50 CNY/kg — up 20.1% YTD — remain structurally supported by copper byproduct supply constraints, while the Section 232 negotiation report deadline (July 13) has passed without immediate tariff action. The Grasberg force majeure (Sep 2025) continues to restrict copper output by ~35%, and with ~80% of molybdenum produced as copper byproduct, concentrate availability remains tight. International moly oxide held at ~$40.82/lb in May. The Section 232 report deadline passed yesterday — the administration has not announced immediate tariffs but the risk remains elevated. FocusEconomics consensus range of $38-45/lb through H2 2026 reflects tight supply against stable steel demand. Buyers should maintain 30-45 day coverage. The China export control suspension expiry (Nov 10, 2026) is the next catalyst to monitor.