Molybdenum prices at 607.5 CNY/kg ($40.82/lb) — up 19.1% YTD but consolidating near 52-week highs as copper byproduct supply constraints support prices while downstream steel resistance limits upside. The market sits in a persistent supply deficit driven by Grasberg force majeure (35% Cu output cut for 2026) and Peru's energy crisis (5x processing costs). With ~80% of molybdenum produced as copper byproduct, the supply deficit is structural. FocusEconomics consensus at $38-45/lb for H2 2026. Buyers should maintain 30-45 day coverage and prepare for potential Section 232 critical minerals tariffs by mid-July 2026 deadline.