Manganese ore prices at 29.75 CNY/mtu — down 20.6% from the March 2026 high of 37.45 CNY/mtu — as GEMCO supply normalizes and steel-sector demand continues softening. MOIL cut domestic Indian prices 5% across all grades for July. The market is broadly balanced trending to a mild surplus as GEMCO Australian output more than doubled to 3M wet tonnes (FY2026). Two smelters closed permanently in July: Transalloys (SA) on July 1 and Liberty Bell Bay (Australia) on July 16, removing ~240kt/yr of ferroalloy capacity. Near-term downside risk is limited by production costs near 29 CNY/mtu. Buyers should target 28-30 CNY/mtu entry points with 30-45 day coverage. Gabon's 2029 export ban creates long-term structural upside risk.