Manganese ore prices at 30.25 CNY/mtu — down 19.2% from the March 2026 high of 37.45 CNY/mtu — as GEMCO supply normalizes and steel-sector demand softens. MOIL cut domestic Indian prices 5-10% for July, signaling regional demand weakness. The market sits in a broadly balanced state with a modest surplus building. Supply risks persist: South Africa's last manganese smelter (Transalloys) halted production on July 3 due to power costs. Gabon's 2029 export ban creates structural upside risk. Buyers should target 29-30 CNY/mtu entry points with 30-45 day coverage.