Manganese ore prices at 31.25 CNY/mtu — down 16.5% from the March 2026 high of 37.45 CNY/mtu — as GEMCO supply returns and steel-sector demand softens. The market sits in a broadly balanced state with a modest surplus emerging. South African logistics constraints and Gabon's 2029 export ban create asymmetric upside risk, while moderating Chinese steel output caps near-term gains. Buyers should target 30 CNY/mtu entry points and maintain 30-45 day coverage.