Thesis: Lithium carbonate recovering at 153,000 CNY/T (+0.99% from prior close of 151,500), up 9.3% from the Aug 4 low of 140,000 as a 12-week destocking cycle accelerates and GFEX futures break through 200,000 CNY/T. Spot remains far below the LC2609 futures level of 203,300-208,800, with physical transactions sluggish and ESS contracts still anchoring to M-1/M-2 averages near 150,000. SMM forecasts persistent China shortages in H2 with the deficit widening into Q4. CATL Jianxiawo remains closed - EIA public consultation started Jul 27, restart not approved. Sep 1 battery consumption tax creates front-loading demand. Nov 10 export-control suspension expiry is the next binary policy catalyst. The recovery has re-established support at 148,000; resistance at 165,250. Procurement posture: LOCK NOW with layered coverage - futures are pricing 30%+ above spot, and waiting for a dip risks paying the futures premium.
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