Lithium Intelligence Report

Thesis: Lithium carbonate consolidating at 146,500 CNY/T (-0.33% from prior close of 145,500) as the market digests a quiet week without major catalyst news. The Jianxiawo restart overhang continues to cap upside while structural deficit forces support at 148,000 (tested twice, held twice). SMM forecasts persistent H2 shortages. ESS demand at +55% YoY remains the key demand driver. The Zimbabwe ban (124kt LCE, ~7% global supply) remains unresolved. CATL's Jianxiawo still needs mining permit, EIA, and tailings approval beyond the July 7 safety permit — full restart not imminent. The 145,000-165,000 consolidation range established over the past month narrows toward the lower end. Near-term resistance at 150,000. Key support at 145,000-148,000.