Thesis: Lithium carbonate consolidating at 154,000 CNY/T (-0.65% WoW) as the market weighs tight H2 fundamentals against Jianxiawo restart speculation. The June 29 low at 151,750 appears to be a tactical floor — SMM expects persistent shortage in H2. The recovery to 165,250 (Jul 3) has partially reversed as traders take profits ahead of CATL restart news flow. Three structural supports remain intact: Zimbabwe export ban (124kt LCE), SMM forecast of H2 deficit, and ESS demand accelerating at +55% YoY. The 150,000-165,000 range reflects genuine uncertainty about supply timing, not demand destruction. Key catalyst in July: Sinomine maintenance shutdowns removing 65kt/yr through end of month. Near-term resistance at 165,000. Support at 145,000 if Jianxiawo restart confirmed.
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