Thesis: Lithium carbonate has recovered +8.9% from the June 29 low (151,750 to 165,250 CNY/T) as early signs of stabilization emerge. The Jianxiawo restart speculation that triggered the June crash appears to have been a buying opportunity — supply conditions remain disrupted, Chinese stocks are lean, and the structural deficit trajectory (Fastmarkets: $23.80/kg 2026 forecast) supports medium-term recovery. New catalyst July 6: Eni invests $225M in EnergyX's Chile DLE project, signaling major institutional capital flowing into brine-based supply. Near-term resistance at 175,000 CNY/T. The fundamental narrative has not changed: the market is tightening. The correction that took prices from 200,500 to 151,750 was supply-rerisking, not demand destruction. November 10 China export control expiry remains the Q4 catalyst.
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