INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Lithium Intelligence Report

July 6, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Lithium (SMM China, LME, CME)
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Thesis: Lithium carbonate has recovered +8.9% from the June 29 low (151,750 to 165,250 CNY/T) as early signs of stabilization emerge. The Jianxiawo restart speculation that triggered the June crash appears to have been a buying opportunity — supply conditions remain disrupted, Chinese stocks are lean, and the structural deficit trajectory (Fastmarkets: $23.80/kg 2026 forecast) supports medium-term recovery. New catalyst July 6: Eni invests $225M in EnergyX's Chile DLE project, signaling major institutional capital flowing into brine-based supply. Near-term resistance at 175,000 CNY/T. The fundamental narrative has not changed: the market is tightening. The correction that took prices from 200,500 to 151,750 was supply-rerisking, not demand destruction. November 10 China export control expiry remains the Q4 catalyst.

SMM China Spot
165,250
+8.9% WoW
US$ Equivalent
~$22,950
USD/mt at 7.2 FX
LME Hydroxide
$19,750
/t · Fastmarkets MB
YTD Change
+18.0%
from 140,000 Jan open
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FACT: 14 · ESTIMATE: 9 · SPECULATION: 3 — Data as of July 6, 2026. Snapshot: lithium-snapshot-20260706.json.

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