Market diagnosis: Global refined lead remains in structural surplus (ILZSG 109kt for 2026), but August price action has shifted from decline to a tight range. LME Cash at $1,846/mt (Aug 14) is +0.3% WoW, with the cash-3M contango narrowing to $43/t from $49.5 - a second week of mild firming. LME stocks drew a fourth consecutive week to 412,675t, down 43,900t from the July 15 peak of 456,575t; the draw is supply redirection plus warrant cancellations, not confirmed consumption. Two policy catalysts hardened this week: BIS published a temporarily final rule prohibiting exports of black mass and tungsten waste/scrap effective August 27 - the concrete date for the US battery-waste export ban - and lead remains inside the Section 232 critical minerals investigation scope (included Nov 7, 2025), with no lead-specific tariff yet. China secondary smelters are cutting output (East China smelter -1,400 t/day on scrap shortage, SMM Aug 13), creating a cost floor, while primary output rebounded +11% YoY in July. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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