Market diagnosis: Global refined lead remains in a structural surplus of 109kt (ILZSG Apr 2026), with elevated LME stocks at 441,275t driven by Indian exports to Singapore warehouses. LME Cash at $1,851.5/mt (-5.9% YTD, -0.75% WoW) continues to reflect the oversupplied market. The key development this week: the contango widened back to $43.5/t from $36.5/t last week, reversing the narrowing trend and suggesting the late-July stabilization was temporary. Glencore and Hartree have cancelled 65,225t of warrants (~14% of total stocks), but ambiguity remains whether this represents genuine physical offtake or warehouse rent-deal repositioning. Glencore's H1 marketing profit of $3.3B demonstrates the trading house has ample financial capacity to hold inventory. Battery replacement season in Q3-Q4 provides a modest demand floor. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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