Market diagnosis: Global refined lead remains in a structural surplus of 109kt (ILZSG Apr 2026), with elevated LME stocks at 448,850t driven by Indian exports to Singapore warehouses. LME Cash at $1,865.5/mt (-5.2% YTD, +2.4% WoW) reflects the oversupplied but stabilizing market. The forward curve has narrowed to $36.5/t contango from $50/t last week — a potential early signal that the inventory-driven selloff may be pausing. Key development: Glencore and Hartree have cancelled 65,225t of warrants (14% of total stocks), with Glencore planning 30,000t withdrawals — the first material physical offtake signal in months. Battery replacement season in Q3-Q4 provides a modest demand floor. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.
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