Lead is range-bound near 14-month lows at $1,851/mt as the market absorbs a 102kt surplus in 2026 — the largest since 2012. LME stocks have mushroomed to over 500,000 t, and secondary (recycled) lead supplies 60% of refined output with healthy scrap availability. The contango structure (-$40/t cash-3M) signals ample prompt availability. Battery demand grows at ~1% but is structurally capped by rising EV penetration. Seasonal summer weakness offers tactical buying opportunity for H2 coverage. Procurement posture: BUYER: OPPORTUNISTIC.
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