June 29, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Lead (LME - SHFE)
BUYER: DEFENSIVE
Lead declined to $1,880/mt cash, losing $55/mt from two weeks ago as contango held at $29/t and LME stocks edged lower to 297kt. A +102kt ILZSG surplus forecast for 2026 caps upside above $2,000, while supply-side risks from Southeast Asian environmental curbs and Strait of Hormuz disruption remain unpriced. Buyers should cover within $1,800-1,950/mt.
LME Cash
$1,880/mt
−2.8% vs Jun 19
as of Jun 26
LME 3-Month
$1,909/mt
Contango +$29
as of Jun 26
SHFE Lead
CNY 16,580/mt
−1.0% vs Jun 22
as of Jun 25
LME Stocks
297kt
−0.4% WoW
as of Jun 26
52-Week Range
$1,828-$2,058
Current: 55th pctl
LME cash
YTD Change
−4.5%
Jan open: $1,968
2026
2026 Surplus
+102kt
Stable vs 2025
ILZSG
Cash-3M
$29 Contango
Widened from $10
early Jun 2026
Data verification: This report passes coherence verification. 5 static charts included. Sources: LME, ILZSG, SMM, Fastmarkets, Mining Technology. Updated June 29, 2026.