Kraft paper markets are in a structural tightening cycle. Fastmarkets RISI recognized the full June $50/t containerboard hike — the first time in at least four years that the full announced increase was implemented in the index in the targeted month. Mill backlogs stand at 5-8 weeks, the strongest supply-demand conditions in years. The net 2026 increase now totals $100/t ($40 Mar + $30 Apr + $50 June), reflecting 3.9 million tons (~10%) of US capacity permanently retired since February 2025. Energy costs, OCC inflation, and structural demand from e-commerce and plastic-to-paper substitution provide a rising price floor. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE — lock H2 volumes before Q3 announcements.