BUYER POSITION: OPPORTUNISTIC
Iron ore 62% Fe opens mid-August 2026 at $94.55/mt CFR China — down 11.8% YTD and just 1% above its 13-month low of $93.66 (Aug 3). THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: a seaborne surplus that is still building. China port stocks hit 175 Mt on Aug 6 (+22.7% y/y), Simandou has shipped 7.4 Mt since November and adds 18 Mt in 2026e, and Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP all guided to record or near-record supply. Demand-side support is policy-dependent: the Politburo delivered no new stimulus in late July, but special-bond infrastructure quotas (Aug 4) and property-support reports (Aug 6) put a floor under the selloff. The CMRG instruction to halt Rio Tinto negotiations (Aug 6) is the newest supply-side lever. Consensus 2026 average range is $93-103/t; spot sits at the low end. Buyers hold leverage: negotiate index-linked contracts, defer fixed-price commitments, and cover only near-term needs.
62% Fe CFR China
$94.55
/mt · +0.11% daily
DCE Sep (I2609)
713.5
CNY/t · -0.35% daily
SGX IODEX Futures
$95.50
/t · +0.74% daily
YTD Change
-11.8%
since Jan 2026
52-Week Range
93.7-111.4
$/mt · near low
China Port Stocks
175 Mt
+22.7% y/y · Aug 6
China Imports H1
628.9 Mt
+6.3% y/y
2026 Consensus
$93-103
/t avg · forecasts
17 Facts · 10 Estimates
Data status: Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China at $94.55/mt (Aug 10, pipeline TIO=F). DCE Sep contract at 713.5 CNY/t (Aug 10). SGX IODEX continuous at $95.50/t (Aug 11). YTD -11.8% (Jan 2 open $107.17). 52-week range $93.66-111.42/mt. China 47-port stocks 175 Mt (Mysteel Aug 6). China H1 imports 628.86 Mt (+6.3% y/y, GACC). Vale Q2 84.3 Mt, Rio Tinto Q2 87.1 Mt, BHP FY26 264.7 Mt. Simandou 7.4 Mt shipped since Nov 2025. CMRG-Rio Tinto negotiation halt (Reuters Aug 6). Consensus 2026: Goldman $93, ING $95, World Bank $97, Fitch $100, Macquarie $103. Sources: pipeline, Mysteel, GACC, NBS, worldsteel, SMM, Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, AXS Marine, Reuters, S&P Global, MINING.COM.
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