Iron Ore 62% Fe Intelligence Report

Prices hold near $99/mt as the iron ore market extends its range-bound consolidation in the third consecutive week of $96-100 trading. SGX TIO=F settled at $98.70/mt on July 20, essentially flat from the prior week and within 2.2% of the 52-week low of $96.50. Chinese port inventories remain elevated — Mysteel 47-port tracked ~171 Mt mid-July, fractionally below the June record but still more than 18% above year-ago levels. Seaborne arrivals remain elevated at +4.8% YTD with no supply pullback expected from Australia or Brazil. Simandou continues ramping — cumulative shipments since November 2025 now exceed 7.4 Mt with accelerating H2 trajectory. Chinese steel demand is contracting an estimated 0.6-1.5% in 2026 (OECD/worldsteel), with construction demand alone falling ~4.1%. Institutional forecasts cluster around $94-96/t for the 2026 average, with downside pressure building into 2027 as Simandou adds incremental supply to an already oversupplied market.